10 years later, Brexit appears increasingly difficult to justify as a strategic choice.
Ten years after the Brexit referendum, dominant narratives remain focused on trade, regulation and the United Kingdom’s global position. Yet one dimension continues to receive comparatively little attention: the internal territorial and democratic tensions that the vote exposed, and arguably intensified, remain unresolved today.
In 2016, the decision to leave the European Union was taken at the level of the UK as a whole. However, this aggregate result masked significant divergence between its constituent nations. Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain, while pro-European political currents in Wales and Cornwall have continued to develop in the years since. In Wales, for example, Plaid Cymru has strengthened its position by forming a government and presenting itself as a pro-European alternative to both centralisation and the rise of populist politics.
This divergence was not merely political: it was constitutional in nature. It raised fundamental questions about how democratic mandates are aggregated within multinational states, and what happens when those mandates point in different directions.
A decade later, these questions remain unresolved. Instead, they have been accompanied by a period of sustained political instability in Westminster. The succession of Prime Ministers over the past ten years has highlighted not only short-term governance challenges but also deeper structural tensions within the UK’s political system. Brexit has not only exacerbated economic difficulties, but has also had visible effects on transport, border regions, public services and the balance of devolution within the UK. From a European perspective, this matters.
The European Union has long engaged primarily with member states as unified actors. However, Brexit illustrates the limits of this approach when internal democratic preferences diverge significantly. It also raises broader questions about how the EU understands and engages with stateless nations and regional political communities across the continent.
The independence?
In parts of the UK, a European orientation remains politically and culturally significant, and debates around identity, governance, and Europe have continued to evolve. Questions of autonomy and independence are therefore increasingly linked to a sense of belonging within the European project.
While the UK, as a sovereign state, exercised its right to leave the European Union, this choice was not uniformly shared. England voted clearly to leave, but Scotland and Northern Ireland did not, raising further questions about independence and, in the case of Ireland, reunification. These are distinct political realities, rooted in different histories, cultures and democratic aspirations.
Ten years on, the United Kingdom appears less politically cohesive. Being together is not the same as being united. The coexistence of divergent political trajectories between centralisation and self-determination suggests a state increasingly defined by internal pluralism rather than unity.
These developments indicate that Brexit did not resolve the UK’s relationship with Europe so much as transform it. While the UK left the European Union, the question of Europe remains open and contested within its borders.
For the EU, this presents both a challenge and an opportunity.
The challenge lies in navigating relationships with neighbouring states that are internally complex and politically differentiated. It is also important to recognise that interference via social media has undermined access to accurate and verified information a challenge that remains both significant and difficult to address today. The opportunity, however, lies in recognising that European integration has always operated at multiple levels not only between states, but also between peoples, regions and political communities.
The challenge lies in navigating relationships with neighbouring states that are internally complex and politically differentiated. It is also important to recognise that interference via social media has undermined access to accurate and verified information a challenge that remains both significant and difficult to address today. The opportunity, however, lies in recognising that European integration has always operated at multiple levels not only between states, but also between peoples, regions and political communities.
Today, Brexit can no longer be understood solely as a completed geopolitical event. It is an ongoing constitutional and democratic process, with implications that extend beyond the United Kingdom. Understanding this complexity is essential for any forward-looking European debate. Acting on it is equally essential if the rights of peoples and nations to choose their own future are to be respected.
Photo © European Union 2020 – Source : EP